Don't Be Fooled Again
Updated: Feb 21, 2019
Stock markets are putting in an impressive rally after December's swoon. The fact of the matter is, however, nothing has changed fundamentally.
Any growth or earnings indicators have actually gotten worse. Yes central banks have walked back any tightening threats and lean once again towards easy policy, but whether that's delivered is another question. Also keep in mind the market fall in 2007-2008 occurred while central banks were easing. That rescue mechanism takes a while to kick in. The ultimate threat of markets calling central banks bluff and no longer responding is also always in play.
The current rally actually represents an excellent opportunity for investors to reduce exposure to the minimum they are comfortable with. Markets may still make new highs, but there's no value or good investment opportunities. Reset IM remains convinced the opportunity to re-enter with a better profile will still play out.